Winners and losers at COP30 in Brazil

The UN climate conference in Belém, Brazil, was on the whole disappointing, said Midland Midlands green energy expert Ron Fox, who looks at the winners and losers at this world COP30 event, which overran by a day and finished on Saturday November 22.

Colombia and the European Union and with around 80 countries, tried to make a stronger move away from coal, oil and gas, which have heated up the atmosphere. This was after countries agreed for the first time at COP28, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2023, about the need to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems”. Brazil wanted the talks to secure clearer steps for how countries would achieve this. But a group of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia ensured there was no agreement on a “roadmap”, a discussion paper about how best to phase out the use of these fossil fuels. Winners: The oil-producing nations.

At COP29, richer countries committed to give developing nations at least £229bn a year by 2035. But that is far less than poorer countries say they need. The idea of tripling money to help low-income nations adapt to climate change made it to the final draft. The wording was vague, so that the EU didn’t object until it was too late, although they managed to delay the move by five years from 2030 to 2035. Partial win for the low-income nations.

For the first time, global trade became one of the key issues at these talks. The European Union is planning to introduce a border tax on certain high-carbon products like steel, fertiliser, cement, and aluminium. But trading partners, including China, India and Saudi Arabia, weren’t happy about that. They say it will make the goods they sell into Europe more expensive – and therefore less competitive.

But the Europeans say the measure is not about stifling trade but about cutting planet-warming gases and tackling climate change. They already charge their own producers of these products a fee for the emissions they create, and say the border tax is a way to protect them from less environmentally friendly, but cheaper imports from abroad. The Europeans told countries that if they didn’t want to pay the European border tax, they should charge emissions fees on their polluting industries and collect the money themselves.
Economists like that idea because the more expensive it is to pollute, the more likely there will be a switch to clean energy alternatives. It also means people will pay more for any goods that contain polluting materials.

The issue was resolved in Brazil with a classic COP compromise – pushing the discussions into future talks. The final agreement launched an ongoing dialogue on trade for future UN climate talks, involving governments as well as others like the World Trade Organisation. Advantage the European Union.

With COP30 hosts Brazil surrounded by rainforest, its centrepiece Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) was officially launched, and it managed to win $5.5bn worth of support despite most nations’ coffers being bare. This is a $125 billion global initiative to fund permanent tropical forest conservation. Championed by Brazil, the facility aims to disrupt the financial logic of deforestation by investing in bonds and paying out returns to countries and communities that conserve their forests. Winners: Brazil.

Perhaps this COP did achieve something others hadn’t done. It broke new ground and started important conversations about key issues that had received little attention before. One of these is how critical minerals and access to them must be given similar attention as fossil fuels, given their essential role in building alternative energy sources. Organisers say the conversation on this and phasing out fossil fuels has started, and it’s not going to stop. Advantage COP.

Next year’s COP31 climate summit will be held in Turkey after Australia dropped its bid to host the annual talks after months of negotiations. Instead, Australia agreed to support the Turkish bid in return for their minister chairing the talks – a highly unusual arrangement that has taken observers by surprise. The COP Presidency is typically held by the host country⁠. Turkey has proposed holding the 2026 summit in Antalya, a resort city of 2.7 million people.⁠

“It is a staggering thought, given this was the first COP to take place in a world that had just experienced a year that was warmer than at any time in modern human history, that so little was achieved in fighting global warming,” said Ron, of Noreus Ltd on the University of Keele Science Innovation Park. “But hopefully what was started in Brazil will be built on in Turkey next year.”

For those wanting more advice about fighting climate change, call Ron on 0845 474 6641 or contact us here.

Caption: The official COP30 logo.